Fed may not tighten credit until next year, experts say

first_img“The Fed continues to expect a December hike, as signalled by its dots chart,” he said.“However, there were otherwise doveish elements to (the) announcement, including a lowering of short-run growth and inflation forecasts and long-term growth, unemployment and the Fed funds rate projections.”He said AXA IM believed the FOMC was likely to hike in December, particularly if the Q3 employment cost index shows some signs of revival.“In the interim, we expect speculation to rise that the Fed will not tighten policy this year,” he said.In a global research report, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said the Fed’s decision was about as doveish as it could be for equity investors, with the committee members having committed to watch international developments.“Similar to deferral of Fed tapering in 2013, we see this as supportive to equities given the de-risking already undertaken,” it said.Peter O’Flanagan, head of foreign exchange trading at ClearTreasury, also noted the way the Fed statement referred to worries about the slowdown in the external environment.“Previously, the Fed had indicated it would be focused on the domestic economy when making decisions around rate hikes, but things have certainly changed,” he said.“Now, it is looking at events in China and other emerging markets and their potential impact on global growth.”Although the Fed maintained it still expected to hike this year, O’Flanagan said December was the only real possibility for this to happen.He said he saw the first quarter of next year as a more realistic target.Lee Ferridge, head of North American macro strategy at State Street Global Markets, said the Fed’s international focus had increased the importance of dollar strength, with the US currency being “the doorway by which the global economy affects the domestic one.”“Now it’s a waiting game again, and every upcoming meeting is on the table so long as data and conditions can justify a move,” he said.“However, there is no guarantee the conditions will be satisfactory ahead of the end of 2015.”Meanwhile, Rick Rieder, CIO of fundamental fixed income at BlackRock, said there were strong signals that a rate hike before the end of the year was very probable.Rieder said the timing of the next increase was much less important than the pace of credit tightening, and that the Fed had already said it would be measured in its approach.“It is very clear the Fed’s monetary policy this upcoming cycle will be nothing like the historic tightening cycles of the past in terms of the consistency of movement at each meeting, or the long-term trajectory of significant rate rises,” he said.Felix Wintle, head of US equities at Neptune Investment Management, also said he expected a rate cut this year.“At Neptune, we are still confident the Fed will raise rates in 2015 and believe December is now the most likely time for this,” he said.Even though the language accompanying yesterday’s decision was doveish, rate rises may come quicker than the market expects, he said.Rising rates will change the investment landscape, he said, with a rising rate environment creating winners and losers among sectors and stocks.“This is because, as interest rates rise, so does the cost of capital – i.e. the cost of credit to corporates,” he said.He said this spelled trouble for companies relying on raising capital to run their business and those that were highly geared.At Amundi, Philippe Ithurbide, global head of research, strategy and analysis, and Bastien Drut, head of strategy and economic research, saw December as the most likely time for the FOMC to make its first rate hike.“But it will stay in very gradual mode and, at the most, tighten by 25 basis points per quarter,” they said.Robeco’s chief economist Léon Cornelissen said that, if the economic climate remained favourable, the most likely scenario was for the Fed to make a first modest rate hike in December, followed by an explanatory press conference by Yellen. The US Federal Reserve’s decision yesterday to hold its key interest rate at zero, coupled with its cautious comments and new focus on the possible impact of external factors, means the cost of central bank credit may stay put until next year, according to asset managers and economists.Although most expected a rate rise to happen in December, many analysts also scrutinised comments by Fed chair Janet Yellen following the decision, which were seen as indicating a more doveish attitude to raising interest rates, as well as a downward revision in its long-term rate outlook.At its meeting yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the Fed funds rate unchanged at 0.00-0.25%.At AXA Investment Managers (AXA IM), senior economist David Page said it was important the Fed lowered its long-term rate outlook to 1.8-2.2% from 2-2.3%.last_img read more

ConocoPhillips sells Greater Sunrise stake to Timor-Leste

first_imgConocoPhillips agreed to sell its 30 percent interest in the Greater Sunrise Fields to the government of Timor-Leste for $360 million.Proceeds from this transaction will be used for general corporate purposes, ConocoPhillips said in a statement.“Although we differ with the government on its proposed development plan for Sunrise, we recognize the importance of the field to the nation of Timor-Leste, and the sale of our interest to the government gives them a working interest in this important development,” said Matt Fox, executive vice president, strategy, exploration and technology, at Conoco Phillips.The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2019.The sale gives the government of Timor-Leste interest in the Woodside-operated multi-billion Greater Sunrise LNG project that stalled due to the maritime border dispute between Timor-Leste and Australia.The project received a major boost in March this year when the two governments signed a treaty establishing permanent maritime boundaries as well as a framework to jointly develop the Greater Sunrise gas fields.The fields were discovered in 1974 and hold gross contingent resources of 5.13 Tcf of gas and 225.9 million barrels of condensate, according to Woodside.The Australian LNG player, together with its partners plans on developing the resources through the Sunrise LNG project.When the interest sale deal between ConocoPhillips and the government of Timor-Leste closes, partners in the Sunrise LNG project will include the operator Woodside with a 33.44 percent stake, Timor-Leste government (30 percent), Shell (26.56 percent) and Osaka Gas with a 10 percent stake.last_img read more

Mike Yardley: Cannabis uncertainty is a cop-out

first_imgNewsTalk ZB 8 July 2020Family First Comment: Another Mike on Newstalk ZB (Mike Yardley this time) nails it….“We already have an addiction-fueled mental health crisis in this country, much of which can be sheeted home to recreational cannabis abuse and psychosis. Why risk aggravating that problem even more, by normalising and legitimising dope, by surrendering on the law?”I have a major beef with this mealy-mouthed suggestion from the Chief Science Advisor’s panel that it’s still uncertain whether legalising dope increases harm.We already have an addiction-fueled mental health crisis in this country, much of which can be sheeted home to recreational cannabis abuse and psychosis. Why risk aggravating that problem even more, by normalising and legitimising dope, by surrendering on the law? There are so many unintended consequences, which I don’t believe this panel has fully considered.Let me give you an example of the elevated threat of real harm to you and me. Drug-driving.Last week the Road Transport Forum made their views very clear about the higher risks on our roads if recreational cannabis use is legalised. It raises the stakes on risk.And bear in mind, the number of people being killed by drug impaired drivers on our roads is already higher than those killed by drivers above the legal alcohol limit. Do we want to ratchet that up?Here’s some stats from various North American jurisdictions that legalised dope.Post-legalisation in Colorado, cannabis-related roads deaths increased 151%. In Washington State, they doubled. A quarter of Canadians aged 18-34 who smoke dope admit to driving after consuming, or have been a passenger with someone who just has. Idiots.In a 2018 Colorado State study, 27% of cannabis users admitted to driving high almost daily. And a New Zealand health study found that habitual users of cannabis have about 10 times the risk of causing a road injury or death compared to infrequent or non-users.Ding ding. I hear alarm bells.READ MORE: https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/opinion/mike-yardley-cannabis-uncertainty-is-a-cop-out/last_img read more

Largest Caribbean refinery in USVI to close

first_img Share Share NewsRegional Largest Caribbean refinery in USVI to close by: – January 19, 2012 Tweet Sharecenter_img 26 Views   one comment Sharing is caring! USVI Governor John de Jongh. Photo credit: nevisblog.comST CROIX, USVI — The Caribbean’s largest oil refinery in St Croix, US Virgin Islands, is to close down by mid-February because of reduced fuel demand and increased international competition.The Hovensa refinery is a joint venture between the Hess Corporation and Petroleos de Venezuela SA. Losses at the 350,000 barrel-a-day facility have totalled $1.3 billion in the past three years, the company said on Wednesday in a statement. USVI Governor John de Jongh described the announcement as “a complete body blow” for the territory. He said Hovensa generated some $60 million a year in revenue for the local government, which already faces a budget crisis.“Given what we’re going through right now, this is the last bit of news that I wanted to hear,” de Jongh said in a media teleconference.The refinery will be converted to an oil storage terminal, said Brian Lever, president and chief operating officer of Hovensa LLC.“We deeply regret the closure of the Hovensa refinery and the impact on our dedicated people,” Lever said. “We explored all available options to avoid this outcome, but severe financial losses left us with no other choice.”The Hovensa refinery employs 1,200 workers with another 950 contract employees at the site, Alex Moorhead, a Hovensa spokesman, said. About 100 people will be retained to operate the terminal, he said.By Caribbean News Now contributorlast_img read more

Lady Raiders Get Win Over Lady Indians

first_imgThe South Ripley Varsity Volleyball team won in three sets 25-23, 25-17, 25-21 at home tonight against Milan. SR is now 2-0 in the conference.The SR JV won in two sets as well 25-21, 25-22.“It was nice to come out and win in three sets. We had some highs and lows tonight. We played together as a team and worked out of some tough situations that we put ourselves in”. “We go to South Dearborn tomorrow night and then we have another conference match at Southwestern Hanover on Thursday night”. “We just need to keep working hard and cut down on the unforced errors”.  Raiders Coach Robyn Greiwe.SR Stats:  Tori Tucker: 11/13 attacks 6 Kills, 6 blocks 2 BS 4 BA, 9/10 serving 6 points, 5/6 serve receive, 3 digs; Laken Farrell: 14/14 attacks 6 kills, 1 BS 4 BA, 5/8 serving 3 points, 7/7 serve receive 10/10 digs; Mariah Gentile (libero): 19/21 Digs, 17/18 serve receive; Mercedes Bowlng: 15/16 attacks 3 kills, 4 blocks 1 BS 3 BA, 10/12 serving 6 points, 3 digs; Kiley Sparks: 18/21 attacks 10 kills, 4 blocks 2 BS 2 BA, 13/13 serving 6 points, 11 digs; Morgan Peetz: 3/4 attacks 1 kills, 1 BA, 4/4 serve receive; Elizabeth Bodenberg: 39/39 setting 12 Kill Assists, 17/17 serving 13 points; Kayla King: 29/29 setting 10 Kill Assists, 14/14 serving 1 Ace; Julia Rea: 3/3 attacks 1 kill, 3/3 serve receive.last_img read more

Business as usual for Olson at Benton County Speedway

first_imgVINTON, Iowa (July 19) – Tony Olson’s dream season continued Sunday night at Benton County Speedway.In just 34 Karl Chevrolet Northern SportMod starts in 2015, Olson earned his 18th feature win, his seventh on the Vinton quarter-mile.Kurt Hogan took the lead from Jake Salisbury following a lap one caution while Olson worked through the pack from a fifth row start. Racing the top side, Olson made his way into the top five after three laps and then found himself challenging Hogan for the lead a handful of laps later.Olson swept around Hogan at the line at the midway point of the 16-lapper, then survived a pair of late stoppages to drive to victory ahead of Danny Dvorak and Matt Petrzelka.Damon Murty also raced to his seventh win of the season in the Ron-Da-Voo Lounge & Deli IMCA Stock Car 18-lapper.Murty started in row five, but a trio of cautions over the first four laps left Murty sitting third for the final restart. He chased Shane Ebaugh back to the green as the lead pair swapped the top spot over the next four laps.Murty took the lead for good on the eighth circuit to drive to victory ahead of Norman Chesmore and Curtis Roster.Mike Burbridge took advantage of his outside front row start in the 20-lap Cassill Motors IMCA Modified feature.Burbridge built a big early lead while Zach Less battled Dennis Betzer for second. Burbridge held a near straightaway advantage by the time Less worked into the runner-up spot on lap eight.Less quickly reeled in Burbridge and made his bid for the lead just past the midway point, taking took over on the 11th circuit. Less led the remainder of the caution-free event to score his first win of the season on his way to the top of the point standings. Burbridge ran second ahead of Troy Cordes.The lead was not the place to be throughout much of the IMCA Hobby Stock headliner.A flat tire briefly sidelined Nathan Ballard midway through the event and a miscue in turn four with two laps to go ended the run for Zach Swanson, who took over after Ballard lost the point.Justin Wacha inherited the lead for a green, white, checker finish allowing him to drive to his second win of the year ahead of Leah Wroten and a hard-charging Ballard.last_img read more

‘Tobacco 21’ gains steam across the country

first_imgBatesville, In. — The Community Anti-Drug Coalitions of America have released projected benefits of raising the smoking rate to 21-years-old. The Tobacco 21 Campaign or T21 is an effort to convince legislators to increase the legal age to purchase tobacco.The projections say there would be a 25 percent decline in smoking among 15 to 17-year-olds, a 10 percent reduction in smoking-related deaths in people born in 2000 or after and cut deaths attributed to lung cancer by 50,000. The report also says 75 percent of adults are in favor including a significant percentage of current smokers.For more information click here.last_img read more

Area 1st Round Football Friday Sectional Scores

first_imgArea 1st Round Football Friday Sectional Scores.Friday  (10-25)Class 3A-Sectional 31Batesville  49     Rushville  14Greensburg  27     Franklin County  26    Lawrenceburg  42     Scottsburg  0Charlestown  7     Brownstown Central  6    Class 4A-Sectional 23East Central  42     Silver Creek  14Greenwood  61     Madison  0Mooresville  35     South Dearborn  13    Martinsville  42     Jennings County  7    Class 1A-Sectional 47Milan  3     Knightstown  0Hagerstown  28     Oldenburg  14Tri  42     South Decatur  12    North Decatur  47     Cambridge City Lincoln  12Class 2A-Sectional 39Providence  14     Clarksville  8Eastern Pekin  22     Union County  0Paoli  66      Switzerland County  7Triton Central  49     Mitchell  16last_img read more

Lady Cardinals Split Games With Lady Wildkats

first_imgThe St. Louis 5th Grade Girls had their home opener tonight Wednesday, January 29, in a rematch with the St. Mary’s (North Vernon) Wildkats. The Cardinals struggled on offense in the first half but was able to use their defense to create turnovers and jumped out to a 18 – 2 lead at halftime. The offensive struggles continued into the early part of the second half but a strong 3rd quarter from Mimi Smith helped to turn things around. Mimi scored 5 of her 9 points in the 3rd quarter to help increase the lead to 27 – 8. The final quarter was all Cardinals as they once again used their strong defense to blank the Wildkats and used those turnovers to create points. Ella King had 4 4th quarter points to go with her team-high 12 total points. The final score was 35 – 8. Ella and Mimi were helped in scoring by Belle Young and Madden Showalter who had 4 points each.  The 5th grade’s next game will be Tuesday, February 4th as they travel to play St. Mary’s School – Aurora.  Courtesy of Cardinals Coach Brent Young.The 6th Grade Girls played their home opener Wednesday night against St. Mary’s North Vernon.  The girls had a strong first half, but the Wildkats proved to be too much for the Cardinals. The Cardinals lost 33-10. Leading in scoring was Rachel Suttmann with 8 points and Jaelyn Owens with 2 points. The Cardinals travel to St. Mary’s in Aurora on Tuesday. Courtesy of Cardinals Coach Anne Suttmann.last_img read more

Tottenham player’s family held at knifepoint during burglary

first_imgRelatedPosts EPL: Son fires four past Southampton Trio of signings make instant impact as Everton stun Spurs EPL: Spurs, Everton light up London Jan Vertonghen’s family was held at knifepoint on Tuesday while four armed men burgled his home with the Tottenham Hotspur defender away on Champions League duty. Police have confirmed men wearing balaclavas forced entry into the Belgian’s house with his wife and children inside. The 32-year-old was in Leipzig at the time for the second leg of the Champions League last 16 tie, which Spurs lost 3-0. A Spurs spokesperson said: “We have been supporting Jan and his family through this terribly traumatic time. “We encourage anyone who has any information to come forward to help the police with their investigation.” A Met Police spokesman said: “Police were called to a residential address in NW3 at 7:49pm on 10 March to a report of a burglary. “Officers attended. It was reported four men wearing balaclavas, armed with knives, had forced entry to the property and stolen a number of items before leaving. “Nobody was injured. The suspects had left the scene before officers arrived. There have been no arrests and inquiries continue.” Vertonghen is one of the latest footballers to be targeted by criminals, with Newcastle’s Isaac Hayden taking to social media on Saturday to report his home had been burgled. Burglars broke into Crystal Palace defender Mamadou Sakho’s house last year, while Liverpool’s Sadio Mane was also burgled last year during time away with Liverpool on Champions League duty.Tags: Jan VertonghenMamadou SakhoTottenham Hotspurlast_img read more